April, 2008

Earlier this week, the Forex Blog speculated that the tide was turning on the Euro, which  had retreated from the $1.60 threshold. Sure enough, the month of April saw the best monthly performance by the Dollar in over two years. The sudden about-face by the Dollar stems from changes in interest rate expectations. Only a couple weeks ago, the consensus among investors was that the Fed would cut rates further at its next meeting; the only point of uncertainty was whether rates would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points.

The anecdotal evidence for surging retail interest in forex is cropping up everywhere. Moreover, investors are no longer even limiting themselves to the spot market, utilizing derivatives to speculate on future exchange rates. In the UK, for example, 10% of investors intending to purchase real estate in the EU are utilizing forward agreements to hedge their exposure to the Euro, which has risen 10% against the Pound since the beginning of 2008. Evidently, prospective home buyers are hoping that the Euro returns to 2007 levels, which would significantly lower the cost of buying property there. However, if the Euro continues to appreciate, such investors could end up losing more than they bargained for. Homes Worldwide reports:

2008 has witnessed a rapid appreciation in the Euro, which recently breached the psychologically important $1.60 barrier. Last week, however, the Dollar dramatically reversed course, leading many traders to speculate that the Euro's best days may be temporarily behind it. There are two ideas underlying this theory. First, the Federal Reserve Bank is probably near the end of its tightening cycle, while the ECB has yet to begin. In addition, recent economic data suggests that the Euro-zone economy, which has appeared recession-proof in spite of the credit crisis, may soon falter. The best-case scenario, according to Dollar bulls, would be a loosening of monetary policy in the EU simultaneous with tightening in the US.

The word "parity" is becoming a mainstay of traders in the forex markets.  In 2007, it applied to the Canadian Dollar, which had rallied 70% over the course of five years to reach the mythical 1:1 level against the USD.  This year, it is the Australian Dollar that is threatening to surpass the Dollar in value. The AUD has always benefited from general USD weakness, but now the focus is shifting to the AUD, itself. The most recent Australian price data suggests that inflation in Australia remains problematic, which could force its Central Bank to raise the benchmark lending rate to 7.5%.  In addition, high commodity prices and consequently strong exports should provide demand for the currency.

The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points, to 3.0%.  The move was widely expected by analysts, although some of them had forecast only a .25% cut. Last week, economic data confirmed a mild rate of inflation in Canada, giving the BOC a green light to ease monetary policy without having to worry about the effect on prices.  Despite commodity prices that remain at stratospheric levels, Canada's economy is sagging, due to the subprime crisis unfolding across the border.

In the year-to-date, the Vietnamese Dong has fallen by .7%.  That may not seem like much, but since the Dong/Dollar exchange rate is approximately 16,000 to 1, every .1% is meaningful. Unfortunately for Vietnam, analysts are predicting that the Dong will fall further, due to a confluence of factors. First, the Vietnamese stock market is tanking; the 42% decline recorded thus far in 2008 makes it Asia's worst performer and unattractive for foreign investors. The second factor is inflation, which is nearing 20% and is directly eroding the value of the Dong.

When asked to discuss the official position of the USA with regard to its currency, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson typically invokes the "Strong Dollar Policy."  According to former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, however, this policy is a "vacuous notion."  Mr. O'Neill served as Secretary from 2001-2002, during which time he echoed the strong dollar sentiments of his forebears, without apparently ever believing that the US had any ability or intention to influence the value of the Dollar in forex markets.  The implications of Mr.

Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) recently unveiled a product that represents a viable alternative to currency exchange trade funds. A currency ETF is "index-passive" because it is linked to an index and rises and falls in line with the value of the currency with which it is associated.  FXCM's Enhanced Dollar Index programs, however, are "actively managed" and  aim to capture all of the upside of currency movements with only some of the downside.